The Tigray Crisis II: The Turmoil Escalates in Northern Ethiop

The Tigray conflict in Northern Ethiopia has taken a violent turn. The Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed rescinded the military cease-fire announced last month. Abiy Ahmed stated the cease-fire failed to ensure peace. He expressed concerns about increased fighting after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)) recaptured the Tigray’s largest city state capital Mekelle. Tigrayan forces also recaptured the surrounding regions of Mai, Tsebri, Alamata and Kore. These areas were initially occupied by the Ethiopian military at the outset of the conflict c last November. The official end of the cease-fire was marked by the deployment of troops from the three Amhara regions of Ethiopia over a week ago. To legitimize this move, Abiy pleaded to the people in his statement by remarking that “The government urges the people of Ethiopia to stand together,” and lend support to the federal forces in “in every way possible and defend the country’s sovereignty.”

The fighting has now spilled over into the neighboring region of Afar. Afar has strategic significance because it links Tigray to the rest of Ethiopia, and it is the main arterial highway linking Ethiopia to Djibouti. More than 20 civilians have been killed and 54,000 have been displaced. Observers in Afar have accused the TPLF of killing civilians. Tigrayan forces have captured three districts in the region just last week.

The damage from renewed fighting is astronomical. More than 2 million people have been displaced. Eritrean refugees, estimated at more than 23,000, in camps in Mai Tsebri in Tigray are at increased risk of persecution and killings. Reports of abuse and rampant sexual violence are widespread. The increasingly deteriorating situation has led to severe declines in economic and social activity. Shortages of basic supplies, and the cessation of telephone and internet service has led to increased turmoil in the region. Similarly, humanitarian aid to more than 900,000 famine-stricken people has become increasingly difficult. This situation is leading to a heightened humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia.

The human rights abuses in the war have been characterized as ‘ethnic cleansing’ by the United States. The revocation of the cease-fire has prompted an even more strident position from the international community regarding famine relief and alleviating conditions in the region. International pressure on Ethiopia includes demands for ‘unfettered’ aid to alleviate famine and assist civilians affected by the war. Western nations have also demanded another ceasefire to prevent the intensification of fighting and threatened sanctions in case this demand is not met.

The situation in Tigray continues to deteriorate. This is particularly disturbing given the fact the Abiy Ahmed received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. He received the prize for his work on peaceful resolutions of the more than 20-year conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The current conflict is one initiated by Ethiopia against its own people. An unconditional end to violence should be pursued. The international community has called for the Ethiopians to initiate peace talks with the Tigrayans. Otherwise, we can expect the military and civilian costs of this conflict to continue to escalate.

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