Locust Plague in East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula

East Africa is in the middle of a catastrophe that seems like it came straight from Exodus. A locust pandemic is sweeping the region, endangering the food supply of tens of millions of people. Swarms of locusts are wreaking havoc on crops and pastures, consuming everything in hours. The locust infestation, which has spread to seven East African countries, is unprecedented in scope.

Initially, the desert locust problem began in May 2018, when Cyclone Mekunu moved over the Empty Quarter, a large, unpopulated desert in the southern Arabian Peninsula, filling the area between dunes with temporary lakes. The initial wave was presumably sparked by the fact that desert locusts breed and reproduce freely in the area. The 2019–2021 locust infestation is a desert locust pest epidemic that is currently endangering food supplies in East Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indian subcontinent. In Kenya, the outbreak is the worst in 70 years, and in Ethiopia, Somalia, and India, it is the worst in 25 years. The plague began in June 2019 and lasted throughout 2020, however locust swarms saw continuous reductions in the number and geographic reach from May to October and were mostly located in the Horn of Africa and Yemen as of November 2020. Swarms had been reported in Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, Oman, Iran, India, and Pakistan by the end of 2019. A new swarm emerged in South America in June 2020, impacting Paraguay and Argentina.

Consequently, on April 2020, around 5.5 million acres of land have been impacted. Kenya alone has over 172,973 acres of infected land. In Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda, and Tanzania, 20.2 million people are suffering from extreme acute food insecurity. In the eight East African countries, 247,105,381 acres of land have been targeted for fast locust surveillance and management. In seven of the eight nations, 110 000 households have been targeted for immediate livelihood protection. “Effective containment is anticipated to cost approximately $60 million, but if there is an increase, the cost would rise to $500 million.”

As the plaque has continued to rage, researchers at the Nairobi-based Intergovernmental Authority on Development climate prediction sand applications center have been using a supercomputer model to forecast breeding sites that may have been overlooked by ground monitoring. If not treated, these places might become sources of new swarms, causing an increase. As a result, if hoppers are removed from adults, there will be no new infection cycle. The model has a 90% accuracy rate in predicting where the swarms will be in the future.

Researchers are now adding data on soil moisture and vegetation cover to assist in forecast where eggs will be placed, hatch, and flourish. This will then give information on where African governments should focus their spraying efforts, allowing them to better manage hoppers before they swarm. The Kenyan government is on high alert and has put in place strong control mechanisms. In February, the Chinese government stated that it will send a team of specialists to Pakistan to create "targeted programs" against locusts and deploy 100,000 ducks.